FORTUNE -- Last week Erin Griffith wrote that a 2013 IPO for flash sales site Gilt Groupe would be huge for the New York City tech scene. Venture capitalist Greg Gretsch followed up by tweeting that the IPO itself must be long-term successful for it to matter in NYC, since Groupon's IPO (GRPN) "has done zilch for the Chicago tech scene."
First, let's all acknowledge that a 2013 Gilt IPO is only slightly more likely than a Denver Broncos Super Bowl win next month. But, beyond that, my gut was that Greg's dismissal of Groupon's impact was wrong. So I reached out for a couple different sets of numbers.
To support his point, Thomson Reuters reports a 28.36% drop in the amount of venture capital disbursed to Chicago-area startups between the first nine months of 2011 and the first nine months of 2012 (and a 28.36% fall in the number of companies):
On the other hand, Groupon's ability to create liquidity for founders and early investors helped lead to the creation of seed-stage investor Lightbank, which says that it has backed more than 50 companies out of its $200 million fund (around 1/3 of which are in Chicago).
Thirteen of the total portfolio already has secured Series B funding, including Chicago companies Belly and Sprout Social. No Groupon, (probably) no Lightbank.
I'm not arguing that Belly, Sprout Social or any other Lightbank-backed Chicago company will become a billion dollar behemoth, but they've got a better shot at it than if Groupon had not existed. Not to mention the thousands of people working at Lightbank-backed companies that might get a future entrepreneurial itch.
So let's leave this as a "remains to be determined" for now…
Sign up for Dan's daily email newsletter on deals and deal-makers: GetTermSheet.com
We're coming to The Windy City.
FORTUNE -- I'm pleased to announce Term Sheet will be hosting its next Liquidity Event in Chicago, on Tuesday, June 12 (that's 3 weeks from tonight). Tickets are now available by going here.
No content, just cocktails and conversation with the area's top deal-makers, deal-breakers, entrepreneurs and assorted hangers-on. Plus yours truly. And, yes, it's an open bar.
The venue is Rockit Bar & Grill, located on MOREDan Primack - May 22, 2012 10:53 AM ET
The money crowd just can't stop gushing about William Daley – but not, they stress, because he's a banker.
Daley is best known as son of the late Chicago mayor Richard Daley, brother of the current Chicago mayor of the same name and as a high-ranking Clinton administration trade official in the late 1990s. He is now a top associate of the nation's most powerful finance executive, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) chief MOREColin Barr - Jan 6, 2011 10:01 AM ET
|2 million Facebook, Gmail and Twitter passwords stolen in massive hack|
|Job growth drives mortgage rate jump|
|Investors brace for big dip in stocks|
|GM to discontinue Chevrolet brand in Europe|
|Ron Paul: Bitcoin could 'destroy the dollar'|