The labor market had a groundhog day.
FORTUNE -- Different report, same numbers.
Squint at January's job numbers and you might think you are looking at the stories from a month ago. Employers added 157,000. The initial report from December was 155,000. (It has since been revised up.) Unemployment rate: 7.9%. In December: 7.8%.
At the start 0f 2012, the unemployment rate was falling pretty rapidly. In the four month period from October 2011 to last January, the unemployment rate fell from 8.9% to 8.3%. But now the unemployment rate has stalled.
Why? First of all, there are more people entering the workforce than there were a year ago. About 1.6 million people in 2012. That's a good thing. More people are optimistic they will find work. But with more people looking, it's harder for the unemployment rate to fall further unless people actually get hired.
At some point you begin to ask if we are ever going to have a real recovery. The consensus estimate for U.S. economic growth this year is 2.3%. That number roughly translates to a job gain of about 125,000 jobs a month. That's basically just enough to provide jobs for the number of people entering the workforce each month. Not much extra for the unemployed.
What's more, at least some of the boost we got in 2012 came from a housing rebound. But that could be coming to an end. Refinancing activity, which had put more money in peoples' pockets to spend, appears to be slowing. Mortgage rates have climbed a bit recently. Economist and housing expert Robert Shiller says the big jumps we have recently seen in prices in Las Vegas and Phoenix and other areas hard hit from the foreclosure crisis, are likely to be short lived.
Even if they aren't, most housing sales are likely to be in existing homes, as underwater borrowers and banks finally unload unwanted properties. Real jobs gains in housing always come from construction, which is still employing 2 million fewer workers than before the recession.
The same can be said for the stock market. Last year, stocks rose 14%. And that makes everyone feel wealthier and better about the economy. But with earnings growth slowing it's hard to see how the market continues to climb higher.
Then of course, there is Washington, which still appears to be more focused on reducing the deficit than getting people back to work. Add in Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's cheap money policies, which at some point have to be reversed, and it's no wonder that economists surveyed by CNNMoney think the unemployment rate will end the year at 7.5% -- just a little bit lower than where we are now.
A lack of corporate raiders and an investor preference for safety could be a better answer to the cash puzzle.
Fortune -- About a year or so ago, corporate balance sheets, for some, became exhibit No. 1 of how President Obama was killing the recovery.
The argument was over cash. Ever since the financial crisis, corporations have hoarded an increasing amount. The pile reached $2.2 trillion at the end of last year, MOREStephen Gandel, senior editor - Jun 6, 2012 6:00 AM ET
Two years after the recession ended, U.S. workers still face a grim job market. And with tepid economic growth and an election year breeding uncertainty, companies are likely to have the upper hand for some time.
By Katherine Reynolds Lewis, contributor
FORTUNE -- It's a tough time to celebrate the American worker. This coming Monday marks the third consecutive Labor Day with an unemployment rate topping 9% and 14 million Americans looking for work. MORESep 2, 2011 5:00 AM ET
In a nutshell, it's because they don't have much choice.
The bright spot in a drab employment picture is that workers have been stretched so thin during the past couple years that companies are going to have to (gasp!) hire more.
You may be understandably suspicious. Corporate America has been raking in massive profits – they flooded in at a record $1.68 trillion annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010 MOREColin Barr - May 6, 2011 6:32 AM ET
CEOs see some light at the end of the hiring tunnel, though they remain nervous about the economy over all.
Three in eight top managers expect to hire more workers by year-end, McKinsey said Friday in its latest quarterly survey of global executives. That's the highest level since the end of 2007, the consulting firm said.
The improved hiring outlook comes even as the 2,056 respondents show increasing ambivalence about the strength MOREColin Barr - Sep 17, 2010 12:46 PM ET
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